The air in Istanbul stings with tear gas, but something else hangs heavy: a sense of fear from Turkey's powerful leader, Erdogan. He's jailed yet another opponent, a move that's become a familiar pattern.

Ekrem Imamoglu's imprisonment, the popular Istanbul mayor, indicates Erdogan's nervousness. His opposition, the CHP, hopes this move was a critical mistake, as they rally large-scale street protests.

Ekrem Imamoglu, poised and ready even for detention, is Erdogan's key rival. He's a strong contender for the 2028 presidential election, if allowed to run.

This isn't just about Istanbul's mayor, however popular he is. It's about Turkey's slipping democracy. Many see this as a last chance to stop its slide into dictatorship.

Despite facing brutal police tactics and the threat of detention, protesters gather nightly. The rapid arrest of over 1,000 people in five days underscores the repressive environment. Turkey boasts of democratic elections and high voter participation, but this paints a misleading picture.

The real issue isn't the voting itself, but what happens outside the polling booths. Opposition figures are jailed, critics silenced, and protests suppressed. The media is heavily controlled, and even social media dissent is punished. By election day, the government dominates the narrative, leaving the opposition marginalized.

Ekrem Imamoglu is a skilled politician with strong voter appeal, having won Istanbul's mayoralty three times. He now faces serious accusations of embezzlement, bribery, and criminal leadership.

A conviction could disqualify him from the presidency. He's already appealing a two-year prison sentence for insulting election officials.

The Turkish government's assertion of judicial independence is contradicted by the views of human rights activists and independent analysts, who express significant doubt.

Human Rights Watch condemned the arrest of the mayor and about 100 officials, calling it a politically driven attempt to suppress legitimate political activity. They have previously criticized Turkey's courts for politically motivated decisions.

A black stain on our democracy," declared Imamoglu on X, where he boasts 9.6 million followers, adding, "I stand tall. I will never bow." This defiant stance likely worries Erdogan, who faces a younger, conservative-friendly opponent in the 53-year-old Imamoglu.

So, what happens now?

Escalating protests pose a major threat to Erdogan. The question is when his security forces will further crack down, potentially leading to fatalities. Every authoritarian regime has a breaking point, sometimes triggered by a single death.

Despite Erdogan's long-held power and loyal base, the opposition is determined to maintain pressure through ongoing demonstrations. Erdogan, however, is confident the protests will lose momentum.

The government anticipates that the pressing economic challenges, including the high rate of inflation and the depreciation of the Turkish lira, will divert public attention from democratic aspirations and lead to a decline in protest activity.

The immediate future will serve as a critical test of the respective endurance of both factions. Based on the observed trajectories of street protests in other authoritarian regimes, a rapid resolution is deemed unlikely.