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What Is Happening in Iran? (part 1 – 3) By: Hormoz Shariat (Iran Alive Ministry) Part 1: What Is Happening with Iran’s People? History is in the making in Iran. As the 40th year of the anniversary of the Islamic revolution approaches, we are seeing the end of this regime. Much is happening in Iran today politically, socially, and spiritually. I believe we will see a major change in Iran soon and it will be in weeks, months, but not years. Location Iran. Green pin on the map.Much is happening these days in Iran. Since December 2017, citizens have protested almost daily on the streets of many Iranian cities. These protests are intensifying. What is the main reason people protest, knowing that they may be arrested or even killed? It is the economy. Iran is a rich country. It has the second largest gas reserves and fourth largest oil reserves in the world. But corruption and mismanagement have deteriorated the economy to a point where millions struggle to meet basic necessities such as bread, milk, eggs, and meat. Many cities have no water or electricity during this hot summer. The unemployment rate is high and jobs so scarce that even those with higher education have no jobs. People with master’s and doctorate degrees are willing to drive cabs and wash dishes in a restaurant, but they cannot find even that work. One thousand Iranian rials on a dinner spoonThe rial has lost nearly 80 percent of its value in the past year, and the middle class can’t make ends meet. Last week, the Iranian Parliament admitted that 50 percent of the population is under the poverty line. Others put that number at 80 percent. Why are the people of Iran so angry? Terrorism prioritized over people. They are angry because they see that their government is not using its income to build its economy but to finance its agenda in Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Iraq, and Yemen. People get angry when they see money spent to help Syrian Bashar Al-Asad stay in power. They get angry when they see their government helping the needy children in Palestine and Lebanon but not in Iran. Unchecked government corruption. They get angry when almost weekly for the last three years, they have heard about multimillion-dollar embezzlements by government officials. (After the removal of sanctions by the Obama administration, the government saw a sudden jump in its income, which fueled many large embezzlements by well-known government officials.) What makes the people even angrier is that these government officials have not been prosecuted but keep their positions. Yet, a thief’s hand is amputated for a small crime. Religious double standards. They get angry when they see that the government’s morality police prosecutes the people over the slightest infraction of dress code, but the children of those in power host illegal parties (posting clips on social media) with no consequences. The people see that double standard and get mad when they see a teenage girl publicly prosecuted on television because she posted a clip of herself on Instagram dancing. Vast economic inequality. They get angry when they see the lifestyle of those in power and their families. They see many Maseratis and Lamborghinis on the streets of Tehran, they see other luxurious trappings of the few in power, they look at themselves struggling with basic necessities, and they get angry. Part 2: What Is Happening with Iran’s Government? The IRI has totally lost its credibility with the people of Iran. Nobody trusts the government anymore, and there is nothing they can do to win back that trust. Even reforms will not work at this point. Every move and decision of the government is looked at with suspicion and is rejected as “another ploy to deceive us.” It is facing financial troubles. Mismanagement of the country’s income; widespread embezzlements; an 80 percent loss of its money value; and an overcommitment to helping Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and Yemen has drained the government’s cash. It is struggling to meet its monthly payroll. Sanctions will add pressure. Even without the sanctions, the IRI is in big trouble. The sanctions that started this week and the oil embargo starting in November will yet be another big financial hit and will speed up the downward spiral of its demise. The people no longer support this regime. In the previous round of sanctions imposed by the Obama administration, the government’s rhetoric was, “America is our enemy and wants to destroy us by sanctions. So if you are under financial pressure, it is the United State’s fault. Let us be united and suffer in silence so that we will not let our enemy USA win.” This approach no longer works. Today, the people say, “We are in trouble because of you and not the US. America is not our enemy, you are.” Many Iranians even support the sanctions saying, “Yes, we are willing to suffer a little more from sanctions because it will bring down the government faster!” Flags at sunset Iran Tehran skyline at sunset Photo by Borna Mirahmadian Sunset is fast approaching for this regime. Its members will try to present a calm face to the world, but its day of power is almost over. Part 3: The United States Doing about Iran? Power of democracy Trump and his administration are following three main plans to push out the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI): Pressure with sanctions. The US is putting more financial pressure on the already pressured government of Iran through sanctions and an oil embargo. Trump may talk of violence, but he will not enter into a full-fledged war with Iran because all he needs to do is just wait for sanctions to effectively destroy the IRI. Approach Iran from a point of strength. Trump’s constant threat to engage in military action puts extra pressure on the IRI. Iran’s government knows its military is no match for the power of the USA and Israel. They know that if a war starts, their people will not support them as they did in the eight-year war against Saddam in the 1980s. Obama negotiated from a point of weakness: he begged Iran not to start a war and bribed it merely to slow down its development of nuclear bombs. But Trump approaches the IRI from a point of strength. Many Iranians living inside Iran are pleased with and support Trump’s approach because they feel Obama threw the IRI a lifeline to survive, but Trump has pulled it back. Keep open the possibility of negotiation.Trump says he is open to negotiation but wants Iran to take the first step. Trump is a strong negotiator—as shown in his book The Art of the Deal—and knows the one who first breaks down and asks for a meeting has a weaker position in negotiation. < Prayer Topics > |